Brazil is emerging as a top player out of the biggest hydrocarbon producing countries of 2018 following confirmation that the pre-salt Campos & Santos basins may contain as much as 100 Bb of recoverable oil.

Primary energy consumption grew by 2.2% in 2017, which sets oil to be the largest provider of future energy consumption.

The deliberate search for additional reserves in proximity to producing assets pays off.

World oil output continues to increase – but if we experience a decline next year, it might be a consequence of lack of investments since 2014.

Despite a strong growth in the use of renewables, oil is by far the preferred energy carrier

Prospect high grading does have an effect – an increased commercial success ratio as demonstrated by the Norwegian continental shelf.

It could turn out to be the discovery of the 21st century – or the duster of the year.

Once again the message is that, despite a phenomenal increase in renewable energy, oil is here to stay.

Oil is still no. 1, but renewables are picking up fast - very fast.

Is it time to learn from the past?

There are several good reasons to believe in a higher oil price than the current less than US$50 a barrel.

Shale oil and gas were considered rarities ten years ago. In the future these resources will constitute a sizable share of the market.

The world’s use of energy will increase in years to come. There is plenty of oil to cover demand. However, the big question is if, and possibly at what rate, renewables will substitute fossil fuels.

The unexpected increase in tight oil production in the US explains why the oil price has plummeted from around US$110 per barrel in 2013 to roughly US$85 per barrel in recent months.

Will the crude oil price break through in 20 years’ time? Or will tight oil and renewable energy work in parallel to keep the price low?